As the Allies' attitude in the event of action by Italy, for
example attack on Yugoslavia without entry into the war on German
side, is now under consideration and your views will be invited
[1], am sending the following rough points for and against
immediate declaration of war against Italy placing those 'for'
first and those 'against' second.

1. Would restore Allied prestige. Would not restore Allied
prestige. Would add to number of our enemies. Italy's aim may be
to bring about a dispersion of our forces.

2. Although the Allies could not bring immediate aid to Yugoslavia
they could take other action against Italy and prevent the
position sliding in South-East Europe. Any action against Italy
would be relatively ineffective and we would see Yugoslavia
rapidly overrun.

3. Having been successful in Yugoslavian adventure Italy will
choose the time which suits her best to enter the war on Germany's
side. So long as the Allies not actually at war with Italy there
is a hope that Hitler and Mussolini will quarrel.

4. Italy in choosing an attack on Yugoslavia rather than coming
into the war on Germany's side has done so because it suits her
best, war being unpopular with the Italian people. Declaring war
against Italy would consolidate people behind Mussolini and as
Allied action would be economic it would revive the cry of
sanctions.

5. If the Allies delay in declaring war Italy will have an
opportunity to build up her stocks and improve her organisation.

So will the Allies.

6. Although the Allies' offensive action would be limited, would
close the entrances of supplies to Italy and would cut off
Abyssinia. Italy would be able to interfere seriously with our
shipping and by offensive action might achieve success against
Malta, Tunisia and Egypt.

7. Would bring Turkey in. While Turkey would no doubt honour her
obligations and come in she would do so unwillingly.

8. The Allies would make their blockade against Germany more
effective. Allies would also be embarrassed if they would not be
able to get oil supplies through from Rumania and substitute
purchases would increase strain on dollar exchange.

9. Until Italy knocked out help to Turkey would be difficult in
the event of a German push [to] Mediterranean or against the
Dardanelles. No certainty that Italy would be knocked out and
Allies' sea routes in providing their requirements would be
greatly extended.

10. Italy would be a liability to Germany both economically and
militarily. Italy might be able to bring Spain in against the
Allies.

I am sending some comments on the above in separate cable Number
298.

BRUCE