The Nuclear Industry – Some Current Issues
As a major uranium exporter and holder of the world's largest uranium reserves, Australia maintains consideration interests in current and future developments within the nuclear industry. Nuclear energy generation continues to steadily increase, recovering from the significant drop that followed the Fukushima incident in 2011. In calendar year 2021, nuclear reactors generated 2653 TWh of energy, about 10 per cent of global power generation.
At the end of 2021, there were 436 operable reactors, with 53 under construction.1 Asia continues to be the heartland of new nuclear power plants with 36 reactors currently being built, predominantly in China, India, South Korea and the United Arab Emirates.
Carbon emissions targets, coupled with the destabilisation of global energy markets after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, are renewing global interest in nuclear power. Governments, including the USA and the European Union, have implemented, or considering, mechanisms such as funds and tax incentives to extend the operation of existing nuclear power plants and encourage new builds.
Advanced and Small Modular Reactor (SMR) companies, aided by significant investment from governments and the private sector, are also aiming to deploy new capabilities later this decade. Many of these new reactors will require high-assay low enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel that, until now, has been primarily supplied by Russia. Pursuit of enhanced domestic production capabilities by countries such as the United States could impact the demand for and destination of Australian uranium exports.
In the long term, the IAEA have increased their projections for global nuclear generating capacity out to 2050. The IAEA's most optimistic estimate is that the global nuclear generating capacity will increase to 792 GW(e) in 2050, compared to 393 GW(e) in 2020.2
Global electricity generation is also expected to double over the next three decades, so nuclear power generation capacity will need to increase to maintain its share of mix. If global nuclear generating capacity increases at the IAEA's high case projection, nuclear power would generate 12 per cent of the world's electricity by in 2050.
1 World Nuclear Association – World Nuclear Association (world-nuclear.org)
2 https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/iaea-increases-projections-for-nuclear-power-use-in-2050
