Output 1.6: CTBT Implementation
Development of verification systems and arrangements in support of Australia's commitments related to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.
Performance Measures
- Australia's obligations under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) are met.
- Legal and administrative mechanisms which support Australia's commitments related to the CTBT are effective.
- Contribute to the development of CTBT verification, including through the work of the CTBT Organization (CTBTO) Preparatory Commission.
- Contribute to Australia's CTBT outreach efforts.
Performance Assessment
International Obligations
Australia hosts 20 monitoring stations and one laboratory as part of the CTBT International Monitoring System (IMS). All are certified as operating to CTBTO technical specifications. Ensuring the effective operation of Australia's IMS stations is a routine focus for ASNO.
Australian CTBT stations performed very well despite the COVID–19 shutdowns and restrictions which delayed or stopped some maintenance activities. Performance of Australian seismo-acoustic stations, operated by Geoscience Australia and the Australian National University, has been very good throughout the year with an average operational performance of 99.53 per cent across the 13 stations. Radionuclide monitoring data availability remained high across the seven stations, with an average 99.1 per cent over the 12-month reporting period.
Figure 5: Data availability for Australian IMS radionuclide monitoring stations in 2020–21. Green indicates the percentage of data that was available for each month.
To overcome the problems caused by the pandemic, there has been more reliance on remote monitoring and access to stations, as well as engaging local operators to undertake additional tasks. Repairs to one of the infrasound elements at IS06 (Shannon, WA) had to be deferred, however the station is still mission capable. For radionuclide stations, visits have been restricted during the reporting period, however all maintenance has either been completed or is planned for Q1 in 2021–22 and the Melbourne station (AUP04) has been refreshed.
During the year, ASNO continued to work with the CTBTO on plans for maintaining the cable that brings to shore data from the Cape Leeuwin hydrophone array (HA01).
ARPANSA, which operates the Australian RN stations, also supported the operation of stations in Fiji and Kiribati. Cocos Island (AUP08) radionuclide station has three new local operators with ARPANSA training being conducted in May.
ASNO is working also with ARPANSA and the Australian Antarctic Division to ensure that the redevelopment of facilities on Macquarie Island has minimal impact on the operation of the IMS radionuclide monitoring facility on the island.
Nuclear-Test-Ban Verification
ASNO administers funding for Geoscience Australia to carry out nuclear test monitoring through its network of seismic stations in addition to those of the CTBT's International Monitoring System (IMS). This arrangement, set out in a Letter of Understanding between Geoscience Australia and ASNO, is reviewed each year. ASNO is satisfied that Geoscience Australia has met its commitments under the Letter of Understanding during the reporting period.
Although the CTBT is not yet in force, its IMS is now substantially in place, with around 90 per cent of Treaty-designated stations in operation. The system detects and reports on many thousands of events each year. Almost all of these can be clearly identified as natural in origin and in the twenty-first century only the DPRK appears to have conducted nuclear test explosions. The table below details nuclear tests conducted by the DPRK.
| Date | Approximate seismic magnitude | Estimated explosive yield (kT) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2006 | mb 3.9 | < 1 | Likely partial failure |
| 25 May 2009 | mb 4.56 | 1 – 5 | Seismic detection consistent with a simple fission device |
| 12 Feb 2013 | mb 4.93 | 3 – 13 | Seismic detection consistent with a simple fission device |
| 6 Jan 2016 | mb 4.83 | 2.5 – 10 | Claimed by DPRK to be test of a 'hydrogen bomb'. Seismic detection consistent with a simple fission device. |
| 9 Sep 2016 | mb 5.06 | 4.4 – 19 | Seismic detection consistent with a simple fission device |
| 3 Sep 2017 | mb 6.05 | 150–240 | Seismic detection consistent with a more advanced weapon design – potentially thermonuclear as claimed by DPRK. |
Since the 2017 declared nuclear explosion, Geoscience Australia has reported to ASNO on the detection of 47 tectonic events located in the vicinity of the DPRK test site at P'unggye-ri. Based on the signal characteristics, some of these appear to be a continuing series of aftershocks following the large September 2017 test explosion. During this reporting period, Geoscience Australia continued to monitor seismic activity in the vicinity of the DPRK test site at P'unggye-ri and reported to ASNO on the detection of eight earthquakes. The sizes of the events ranged from magnitude 2 to 3.2. Based on technical analysis of the detections, it seems unlikely that any of these events indicate new human activity at the test site.
Australian Participation in CTBTO verification development activities
The CTBTO Preparatory Commission, including its Member States, continues to carry out work to ensure the Treaty's verification regime will be ready to meet requirements in the CTBT when the Treaty enters into force.
ASNO coordinates and contributes to Australia's specialist support for this work, which is focused on meetings of the CTBTO's Working Group B. Experts from Geoscience Australia and ARPANSA contribute mainly in relation to ongoing development of the CTBT's IMS and International Data Centre (IDC). When the CTBT enters into force, it will provide for on-site inspections (OSI) to determine whether a nuclear explosion has taken place in a particular area. ASNO's Malcolm Coxhead, as Task Leader for the elaboration of an Operational Manual on the conduct of OSI, continued to chair discussions on this subject at the CTBTO Preparatory Commission's technical working group. Travel restrictions due to COVID have limited the scope of this work during the reporting period. Some meetings continued in a virtual format although progress on advancing technical work was been impaired. In particular, field exercises to test and develop the CTBTO's ability to conduct an on-site inspection under the CTBT had to be deferred.
ASNO coordinates the involvement of Australians in training aimed at supporting the operation of the IMS and IDC. While around 90 per cent of CTBT IMS stations are now in place worldwide, detailed preparatory work is continuing to bring the IMS and IDC to satisfactory levels of readiness. ASNO coordinates Australia's contribution to the CTBTO's work in this area, working with technical specialists from Geoscience Australia and ARPANSA.
During the reporting period, Australian experts participated in online international workshops and training in support of CTBT verification or in relation to functions as IMS station operators. ASNO experts attended several webinars hosted by the CTBTO: Underground Nuclear Explosion (UNE) Observables and Detection; Inspection Team Functionality; OSI Operations Support Centre; and OSI Field Laboratory.
Geoscience Australia had four personnel attend online training delivered by the CTBTO:
- Online Technical Training for Station Operators of IMS Infrasound Stations with Nanometrics and Guralp Equipment (26–30 April) – two attendees.
- Online Technical Training for Station Operators of IMS Seismic Stations and Hydroacoustic T-Phase Stations with Nanometrics and Guralp Equipment (22–26 March) – two attendees.
Australia's RN04 radionuclide monitoring station in Melbourne, part of the CTBTO International Monitoring System, with the dedicated ARPANSA team, during a visit from ASNO.
Civil and Scientific uses of IMS data
Selected IMS data continues to be used for civil and scientific purposes in Australia. For example, data from seismic stations is used in the Australian National Earthquake Alert Centre for the detection and location of numerous Australian and overseas earthquakes and for tsunami warning. In addition, IMS infrasound data has even been used to confirm meteor sightings and data from the Cape Leeuwin hydrophone array is used in studies of the marine environment such as whale movements.
Outreach
During the reporting period, the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization held elections for the next Executive Secretary.
On 18 September 2020, Australia's Minister for Foreign Affairs, Senator Marise Payne, announced that ASNO's Director General Dr Robert Floyd was Australia's candidate for the position of Executive Secretary of the Preparatory Commission CTBTO. This important international post leads the joint efforts of 185 countries to ensure a permanent end to nuclear weapon test explosions.
Dr Floyd was elected as the Executive Secretary of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO) on 20 May 2021 after an extended election process. Dr Floyd received 96 votes in support of his election (of 146 states voting), achieving the two-thirds majority required for election as Executive Secretary of the CTBTO. ASNO worked closely with DFAT colleagues throughout the campaign.
Dr Floyd took up his appointment as CTBTO Executive Secretary on 1 August 2021, succeeding Dr Lassina Zerbo. Dr Floyd aims to build on Dr Zerbo's legacy to further universalise the CTBT and engage diverse voices in the disarmament community in the important work of the CTBTO.
Australia's nomination and support for the election of Dr Floyd as Executive Secretary of the CTBTO offered numerous opportunities for bilateral discussions on promoting the CTBT and encouraging adherence to it. In addition to engagement by Australia's candidate with most Vienna-based CTBTO missions, outreach included approximately 70 countries through their representatives in New York, Geneva, Berlin and Canberra. Australian diplomatic posts engaged with host governments in around 175 countries on the importance of the CTBT as part of the election campaign.
